A Weather 20/20 Vision Into 2026
Top 3 Weather Events of 2025
Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!
As 2025 comes to a close, it’s a natural question to ask: what were the top three weather events of the year? We’ll finish this report by identifying those top three weather disasters, but first, let’s begin with what has just unfolded—and why it matters.
Over the past couple of weeks, a series of storm systems has impacted the western United States, validating a key part of this year’s LRC that we identified nearly two months in advance. Understanding how and why that prediction verified is critical as we look ahead to the New Year and toward the planting, growing, and harvest outlook I’ll be presenting at FarmCon next week.
I spent the Christmas holiday in Lake Tahoe, experiencing this storm firsthand. It began as a very wet event, with about 2.50 inches of rain falling before snow levels finally dropped. Resorts like Heavenly needed that colder air—and it arrived just in time. What followed was significant snowfall that changed the story entirely.
Take a look at the next two slides from Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Lake Tahoe, as we walk through how this storm fits into the larger cycling pattern. Look at what happened in 24 hours at Heavenly:
In a matter of days, ski resorts around Lake Tahoe went from barely open to fully operational. In just 24 hours, snow levels dropped from 8,000 feet to near 6,000 feet, with around two feet of snow at the base of Heavenly and up to four feet near 9,000 feet. Conditions flipped from challenging to excellent by the weekend.
The first major prediction of the 2025–2026 season has now verified.
On October 14, 2025, a major storm blasted into California, shown on the left image in the slide above. Another significant storm followed on November 17, 34 days later. When these events occurred, Weather 20/20 identified this part of the pattern and predicted that when it cycled back through, another similar storm would strike again.
That prediction has now verified.
Roughly two months later, this same part of the pattern returned, producing the major storm shown on the right side of the next slide—the Christmas Day storm blasting into the West Coast. This is a clear example of a successful long-range forecast, validated by real-world impacts.
The verification timeline shown above also points to what comes next. This same part of the pattern is forecast to cycle back through again in late February into early March, with a near-100% probability that California will be impacted by another significant storm. There will be other storm systems between now and then as well.
The LRC Index is our way of tracking the river of air within the troposphere. When the October 14, 2025 storm blasted into California, it produced a deep –4 LRC Index value at San Francisco (shown on the chart below). I shared this with you at the time, in this report in October, and explained why it mattered—it was stronger than any storm signal from the previous year, and that strength meant it would return as a strong and wet storm.
And it just did.
On the chart, the red line represents the first LRC cycle, while the white line shows the current Cycle 2. Notice how closely the patterns line up at the time of this most recent storm. Also note the other significant dips, including the one in mid-November, which corresponded to the November 17 storm system. That segment of the pattern is now timed to cycle back through again in late January into early February.
This is the LRC in action—pattern first, timing second, verification third. It’s as if we’ve identified the heartbeat of the atmosphere, the rhythm of this year’s cycling weather pattern—something we uncover anew each year.
While others continue scrambling to explain what’s happening with the weather pattern this winter, those of you following Weather 20/20 understand what’s really driving it: this year’s LRC. The cycling pattern is already set, and it provides clear answers to questions that otherwise seem confusing.
I just read an article discussing Colorado Snowpack Near Record Lows, offering various theories as to why. The reality is that these questions are answered by understanding the LRC. The pattern for this season is established, and without recognizing it, the same questions will keep resurfacing over the next few months.
That’s also why several winter forecasts issued earlier in the fall are already proving to be wrong. Almost every forecast we have seen showcased it being dry in California, when early on Weather 20/20 predicted a wet season ahead for the Golden state:
Other forecasters are missing the largest piece of the atmospheric jigsaw—the centerpiece—the LRC. The fringe pieces still matter, and we track them carefully, but without the centerpiece in place, the picture remains incomplete.
Right now, the weak La Niña conditions (it is far from being a La Niña winter) and ongoing cooling of the tropical Pacific are likely to fade toward neutral conditions over the next 6–8 weeks. That shift is important, because it supports a westward adjustment in precipitation patterns, similar to what we saw last winter.
We’ll be discussing this in much greater detail at FarmCon next week in Kansas City, and I’ll then share those insights with you here in the coming weeks as the pattern continues to evolve.
Weather 20/20 has accurately forecast conditions across the agricultural belt for four consecutive years, and farmers are now using our patent-pending LRC model to access data and insights that help them make more profitable, better-timed decisions.
In the coming weeks, we’ll be sharing more of this data with you. In the meantime, you can gain exclusive access to our Weather 20/20 dashboard, which we highly recommend. It allows you to drill down to your state and county, giving you the tools needed to prepare confidently for the planting, growing, and harvest seasons ahead.
At the core of this accuracy is the LRC—the centerpiece of the formula. The other pieces still matter, and one of the most important supporting influences involves the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO):
Both the AO and NAO are trending toward negative values, followed by a likely surge back into positive territory over the next ten days.
Regardless of what these indexes are doing in the short term, the weather pattern continues to cycle on schedule, providing the consistent timing framework that anchors the forecast.
We’ve identified two primary phases within this year’s cycling pattern, and it now appears that each phase will occur twice within each larger LRC cycle. This year’s cycle is also about four weeks longer than last year’s, an important distinction for timing.
Over the past few days, we’ve transitioned from Phase 2 back into Phase 1, and that shift has already delivered results—producing a major storm across the Great Lakes into southern Canada, along with a strong cold front blasting south.
Meanwhile, a storm currently stalled off the Baja California coast, just south of San Diego, may look impressive on satellite imagery but has yet to move inland. That system is expected to begin drifting north toward Southern California, potentially arriving around New Year’s Day. If that timing holds, it could create rare weather concerns for the Rose Bowl Parade and the College Football Playoff game.
Before we get to the forecasts, here is today’s video, where I walk through the full analysis, verification, and what it means as we head into the New Year: