It's Still Very Early In The New LRC

The weather pattern is in a massive change as we move deeper into October

Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report. As we witness the last traces of the previous year’s cycling weather pattern, an early frost or freeze has affected many regions, while maintaining a predominantly dry start. But could we be on the cusp of a change which I will explain in the video portion of this report?

Let’s reflect on the forecast we issued back in August—nearly two months ago—when the LRC model indicated a potential early frost or freeze across a significant portion of the Corn Belt, timed out to happen around the middle of this month. At the time, it was uncertain whether this event would materialize as the new weather pattern begins to emerge in early October, but there is enough of the old pattern still hanging on to bring this anticipated frost or freeze. This is the forecast from the LRC model from months ago showing the dip and colder spell happening now.

There is a surface high expanding out over the plains states tonight, shown here on this surface forecast valid at 7 AM Central Time Wednesday, October 17. The winds blow away from high pressure and towards low pressure. This high pressure area is strong enough to produce the conditions for the frost or freeze by morning.