Weather 20/20 Ultra Long Range Forecasting

Weather 20/20 Ultra Long Range Forecasting

Still Summer: Tracking the LRC as Fall Approaches

Let's go in-depth into where we are in this cycling weather pattern

Gary Lezak's avatar
Gary Lezak
Sep 09, 2025
∙ Paid

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There’s always some confusion about when the seasons begin and end. Many meteorologists will say that summer ended on August 31st. I am not one of those meteorologists. The truth is: it’s still summer.

Summer officially ends on the autumnal equinox, September 22nd this year. That date also plays a critical role in the cycling pattern of the atmosphere — as we will discuss in the coming weeks.

Forecast Overview (One Week Ahead): Let’s begin by looking at the forecast one week from today. There is so much to discuss, but I’ll keep it simple (KISS).

As shown on the map below, the main jet stream remains far north over Canada, while dipping southward over the Pacific. This setup is temporary — and it signals that some massive changes in the weather pattern are due within the next three weeks.

A large ridge aloft is forecast to stretch from Texas northeastward to the Great Lakes. This will allow heat and humidity to build across much of the central and eastern United States.

There is also the potential for a weak tropical system developing near the East Coast — we’ll take a closer look at that in just a moment.

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