The summer pattern is right on schedule
The LRC set up last fall and continues to be spot on accurate
We hope everyone is having a great summer. I wish the weather would be perfect for any of our activities, and we know that it is far from it. It either rains way too much, or not at all when you need it the most.
The retreating Jet Stream
The jet stream is caused by temperature contrast. During the summer this temperature contrast weakens considerably. This forces the jet stream to retreat north and reach its weakest strength by the first week of August. As you can see above, the jet stream is now up in Canada.
This has allowed for the “heat wave creating machine”, or anticyclone that you can see in the HIGH on these maps. On November 6, 2021, the high was over the southern Gulf of California. As of a couple of days ago, it had built north over Colorado and New Mexico and it has created the conditions for a heat wave.
The LRC still moves these highs around and they are predictable. We will be sharing a lot more in the next year as our model continues to become more accurate.
The LRC-Model is as accurate 100-days out as the 7-day forecast is on your weather app.
The 60-day forecast for the Oklahoma City Counties
These forecasts were made two months ago, and the LRC-model predicted the heat well. It over predicted the rainfall. Tulsa, OK has had no rain in over a month. The retreating jet stream and this year’s pattern is the cause.
The 60-day forecast for the Kansas City region:
The LRC-Model shows some heat, but then it breaks much faster than the traditional models have been predicting.
The tropical predictions from Weather 20/20 have been increasingly accurate for the past decade. Our prediction of a quiet season has been accurate thus far.
Corn Belt Predictions:
There are some dry stress spots over the corn belt, but overall, the season has been getting quite favorable conditions. We are analyzing the pattern closely, and we will discuss in our pay version of this newsletter before the end of the month.
Thank you for joining our Weather 20/20 substack account. The paid version is only $50/month, or if you really want a deal, it is only $300/year. And, that will get up great updates as the new LRC sets up next fall.
The next big update will be for our upgraded members on August 1. Have a great rest of July!