The Super Bowl Sunday USA Forecast & A Glimpse Into The Last Freeze Outlook
The weather looks rather calm on Super Bowl Sunday
Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report, and a special greeting to the dozens of new premium customers who have joined us. I’m Gary Lezak, and in today’s edition, we showcase the weather forecast set-up for Super Bowl Sunday across the USA and take our first look at the potential for the last frost and freeze this season, focusing on the temperature trends in Iowa and North Dakota, as predicted by our patent-pending LRC model.
Last week, we discussed a returning storm system in the Southwest, which, as anticipated, brought much-needed rainfall to Southern California, and at the same time not nearly enough rain. We will explore the implications of this system in a moment. First, let's examine the comparative slides that showcase the atmospheric conditions at approximately 18,000 feet, called the 500 mb level by meteorologists. These images reflect the cyclical nature of the LRC, which recurs roughly every six weeks, give or take a few days in the 2024-2025 cycling pattern year.
On the right of the first slide, you’ll see the recent data from the GFS model, valid January 30th. On the left, we revisit the weather pattern from the first cycle of this year’s LRC from November 7, 2024. This side-by-side comparison showcases a great example of the cycling pattern.
Moving to the next slide, we present a real-time follow-up: on the right, what actually transpired on January 29th, and on the left, the corresponding day from November 7th of Cycle 1. This juxtaposition provides a clear visualization of how accurately the LRC predicts significant weather events and patterns, further validating the model’s precision and value.
While I was writing this report, I noticed that the two upper lows, strikingly similar and located within miles of the same spot, closely resemble examples from our 2018 peer-reviewed paper. This observation isn’t just a coincidence; it's a testament to the consistent and predictable nature of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). In our Published 2018 Paper , we analyzed a comparable scenario from the 2016-2017 LRC year, where two upper lows were also perfectly aligned showcasing a completely different pattern, demonstrating the model's robustness across different years.
This side-by-side comparison not only reiterates the reliability of the LRC but also strengthens its scientific foundation. It shows that what we observe today has been observed and documented before under similar conditions, further proving the LRC's validity as a predictive tool in meteorology. Such historical consistency is crucial for enhancing our understanding and confidence in the LRC model, allowing us to forecast with greater precision and helping a wide range of weather sensitive businesses, from meteorologists to agricultural planners, prepare for what lies ahead.
Okay, now I am getting off on tangents. Is Kansas City about to have another threat of a major winter storm? More on what lies ahead in just a second, but first let’s get back to what this same segment of the pattern just produced. In the November version, the snowstorm produced over 30” in a few spots over eastern Colorado, and this time, 82 days later or right on cycle, the more recent storm produced around 15”, and you can see the comparison on this next slide: