Tropical Update - Ernesto Weakens - What's Next

Hurricane Ernesto weakens and moves north

Welcome to our Tropical Update from the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report!

This hurricane season has some early numbers to track. Take a look at the forecast from Weather 20/20 made in March:

Major Hurricane Beryl had a significant impact on the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and this is why that number is three times the normal energy by August 18th. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. We usually don’t have a major hurricane until around the first week of September. At the same time, the number of named tropical storms is close to average.

Ernesto did hit Bermuda directly on Saturday, August 17th, and fortunately it was a weak hurricane. They have been through much worse storms in the past. After Ernesto fades away in the next two days, there is nothing else showing up. The next named storm will be called Francine. Here is the list of names for the season:

The red shade shows the Hurricanes and the yellow shade shows the Tropical Storms. So far there have been three hurricanes and two Tropical Storms.

The brighter hurricane symbol shows our prediction from 25 days before Hurricane Ernesto, shown on the satellite picture to the right of the forecast.

Ernesto, Debby, and Beryl were all predicted from weeks to months in advance as the LRC is right on schedule.

Here is today’s video explanation:

What is next? Here are two forecasts from our initial analysis and published in March. The LRC & Weather 20/20 are predicting it to become active as we approach peak hurricane season. The northeast Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of Florida are the primary landfall targets in the next three to four weeks.

Hurricane Tammy formed in October, and that part of the pattern is due to cycle back through around peak hurricane season. As you can see in the slide below, it could be as early as September 4th or as late as September 18th, depending on what part of the cycling pattern this potential system forms.

One of the early indicators for this risk was Hurricane Tammy way back in October.

Let us know if you have any questions. The Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report will be published Tuesday with a full agriculture update for harvest, which will be available to our premium customers.

Have a great week,

Gary Lezak