Tropical Update On The LRC & Hurricane Season

This is our first tropical update of the season

Welcome to our weekly tropical update!

Welcome to our first Tropical Update of the 2025 Hurricane Season.
We’ll be posting these every weekend throughout what is shaping up to be a very active season ahead.

While Missouri and Kansas saw bands of showers and thunderstorms this Saturday, the tropics remain quiet for now. But make no mistake — the weather pattern is right on schedule, according to the LRC. And once again, hurricane season is forecast to turn active — just as predicted by the #1 long-range hurricane forecaster in the world: Weather 20/20.

As you’ll see in the next chart, it’s not even close. Based on independent rankings from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Weather 20/20 has outperformed every other forecaster over the past three years.
Why?
Because we use something no one else does — the LRC.

If you're interested in following tropical development before it happens, we invite you to subscribe and share this page. Our forecasts are powered by science, not guesswork — and we’re just getting started.

Here are the predictions for the number of named storms in the 2025 hurricane season, which is now officially underway. This chart, from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), shows forecasts from all the major organizations — and you’ll see that Weather 20/20 is among the highest this year.

Interestingly, last year we had one of the lowest forecasts, and yet Weather 20/20 ranked #1 overall in accuracy across all categories — a testament to the power of the LRC. It’s not about following the crowd. It’s about following the pattern.

The proven method we’ve used for over a decade — powered by the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) — takes many factors into account. And last year, something happened that perfectly illustrates one of the most important points we’ve been making for years.

In 2024, there were 18 named storms.
Our forecast? 17 named storms, with a projected range of 14 to 19.
Most other forecasters? They were calling for 20 to 30 named storms, with some even higher.
So what happened?

By October 4, 2024, there had only been 12 named storms.
That’s right — TWELVE.
Then, on October 5, just as the new LRC pattern began to set up, Major Hurricane Milton formed — the first of six additional named storms that occurred after Day 1 of the new pattern.

Those six storms allowed many forecasters to “save face,” claiming they were right about a hyperactive season — but in truth, their forecasts were way off. Only the LRC had the precision to forecast what actually happened.

This brings us to one of the most important forecasting insights that most others don’t even consider:

The first thing to evaluate when predicting the next hurricane season is what happened after the new LRC set up in the fall.

While it’s not 100% accurate, our research shows it’s about 75% predictive of what will happen the following season. So when we saw six named storms after October 4th, it was our first clue:
➡️ 2025 is likely going to be active.

Let’s use this method and begin the analysis of one of our higher confidence predictions for the upcoming season: The Hurricane Rafael Segment of the LRC.