Welcome Summer: How the LRC Predicts Weather into September
As the LRC Marches On — Discover What This Summer Holds for Your Area
Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report! We are in the final stretch of spring as the summer solstice happens on June 20, 2024, at 3:50 PM Central Time.
In today’s Weather Intelligence Report, we take a look at the latest developments in the tropics, the cycling weather pattern, and the behavior of the jet stream during the summer months. We will also provide an LRC-based forecast for July and August, offering insights into what might be ahead.
As we begin this discussion, there’s a tropical system gradually organizing over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Despite significantly warmer-than-average tropical water temperatures that have been hyped up over the past few months, we are still awaiting the season's first named storm. Why the delay, especially when we are already trailing last year by two named storms at this point? Consider a winter scenario: it can be cold enough for snow, yet without a cloud in the sky, no snow falls. Snow requires not just cold temperatures but also a storm system or at least some atmospheric disturbance, moisture, and cloud cover. Similarly, in the tropics, elevated water temperatures alone are not enough; organized tropical activity requires disturbances to initiate thunderstorm formation. This is where the LRC shines—it not only predicts when and where these critical disturbances are likely to form but also enhances our understanding of their potential impacts.
Starting this week, we will launch our inaugural edition of ‘LRC Tropical Insights,’ which will be published late each week, likely on Thursday or Friday. This dedicated update will focus on providing you with the latest developments in the tropics, analyzed through the lens of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).
To kick things off, here are the Tropical Storm Names for the 2024 season:
The reason why hurricane season usually begins in late May or June is because the jet stream lifts north and weakens. When the winds aloft weaken, tropical systems have a chance to organize and form. The jet stream has been shifting north and summer is now trying to settle in.
Welcome to Today's Video Overview: In this segment, I'll quickly walk you through the key highlights and insights from this week's report. Please read through the accompanying material and watch this video and I am hear to help if you have any questions.