Ben, your "just enough" statement hits it on the nose. The pressure is on each chance of rain, and we will feel that pressure early next week. There will be many other chances as phase 1 of the pattern cycles through in the next four weeks. Keep us updated.
I’ve had 5 inches in North MO going back about 75 days or so. We’re falling behind but have had just enough to keep us going. Most of the planting will be finishing up by the weekend but we’re running out of moisture to plant into. Everyone is hoping the rain comes on Monday
Much of NE is will really be in dire straights (basically is) if phase 1 of this cycle fails to produce much rainfall. Some farmers may need to replant due to DRYNESS (as opposed to flooding) especially with the hot weather this week. If the western Corn Belt gets missed again, we may be cooked for the season. It's amazing how the LRC can't seem to reproduce what it did during cycle 1 (November 2024) where it delivered widespread above average rainfall throughout the entire plains (including all of NE). Do we sound the drought warning alarm for NE and western IA?? Haha
Jason, thank you so much for posting your thoughts this evening, you're really hitting on the core concern right now. You’re absolutely right: there’s a lot riding on this sixth cycle version of this year's LRC and we will be moving into, what we call Phase 1 of the pattern. And yes, the pressure is on. In Hasting's, NE , this segment produced 2.88" of rainfall in November — well above average — and widespread across much of Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. We are currently moving through the October segment of the first cycle, and it was much less impactful — only about 50% of average in key areas, but that was mostly in the phase 2 part, which we are in right now. The good news is the November phase is coming next, and that’s the version that previously delivered on drought relief.
So while it’s absolutely valid to raise the flag and watch this closely, I’d say we’re not ready to sound the drought alarm just yet — but we are firmly on alert. If the next five weeks underperform again, especially in northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, then yes — we may have to adjust expectations for the summer growing season.
As always, the LRC gives us context before it shows up on the radar — and right now, that context says next 10–15 days that will begin around ten days from now are highly important. Maybe we get some hints next week, but the critical time is from May 20- June 15, before summer arrives.
Do you think if the axial seamount volcano erupts off the cost of Oregon this year will it disrupt the weather do to its potential warming of the water? Or will it not be a large enough to influence water temperatures
John, Great question. It is over 4,000 feet below the surface and it likely is already warming the water. That current tracks from the Gulf of Alaska south across the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is such a cool current, but there may still be some influence. It is something we will be monitoring. For those of you wondering. This volcano has erupted often in the past 30 years. So, there may be some data to study and see if other eruptions had any impacts on the ocean temperatures.
Ben, your "just enough" statement hits it on the nose. The pressure is on each chance of rain, and we will feel that pressure early next week. There will be many other chances as phase 1 of the pattern cycles through in the next four weeks. Keep us updated.
I’ve had 5 inches in North MO going back about 75 days or so. We’re falling behind but have had just enough to keep us going. Most of the planting will be finishing up by the weekend but we’re running out of moisture to plant into. Everyone is hoping the rain comes on Monday
Much of NE is will really be in dire straights (basically is) if phase 1 of this cycle fails to produce much rainfall. Some farmers may need to replant due to DRYNESS (as opposed to flooding) especially with the hot weather this week. If the western Corn Belt gets missed again, we may be cooked for the season. It's amazing how the LRC can't seem to reproduce what it did during cycle 1 (November 2024) where it delivered widespread above average rainfall throughout the entire plains (including all of NE). Do we sound the drought warning alarm for NE and western IA?? Haha
Jason, thank you so much for posting your thoughts this evening, you're really hitting on the core concern right now. You’re absolutely right: there’s a lot riding on this sixth cycle version of this year's LRC and we will be moving into, what we call Phase 1 of the pattern. And yes, the pressure is on. In Hasting's, NE , this segment produced 2.88" of rainfall in November — well above average — and widespread across much of Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. We are currently moving through the October segment of the first cycle, and it was much less impactful — only about 50% of average in key areas, but that was mostly in the phase 2 part, which we are in right now. The good news is the November phase is coming next, and that’s the version that previously delivered on drought relief.
So while it’s absolutely valid to raise the flag and watch this closely, I’d say we’re not ready to sound the drought alarm just yet — but we are firmly on alert. If the next five weeks underperform again, especially in northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, then yes — we may have to adjust expectations for the summer growing season.
As always, the LRC gives us context before it shows up on the radar — and right now, that context says next 10–15 days that will begin around ten days from now are highly important. Maybe we get some hints next week, but the critical time is from May 20- June 15, before summer arrives.
Do you think if the axial seamount volcano erupts off the cost of Oregon this year will it disrupt the weather do to its potential warming of the water? Or will it not be a large enough to influence water temperatures
John, Great question. It is over 4,000 feet below the surface and it likely is already warming the water. That current tracks from the Gulf of Alaska south across the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is such a cool current, but there may still be some influence. It is something we will be monitoring. For those of you wondering. This volcano has erupted often in the past 30 years. So, there may be some data to study and see if other eruptions had any impacts on the ocean temperatures.